SIMULATION OF URBAN GROWTH IN THE CITY OF BUENA FE, ECUADOR APPLYING THE SLEUTH CELLULAR AUTOMATON

Abstract

Cellular Automata (CA) models make it possible to foresee the consequences of land planning policies seeking sustainability. The objective of this research project was to apply free software implementing CA model SLEUTH developed by NASA to predict urban growth scenarios for the Buena Fe area in Ecuador. Input data ware derived from Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite images, digital elevation model generated by NASA and vector maps of the study area from National Information System of Ecuador. During pre-processing in the GIS environment all the data were reprojected to the UTM projection (Zone 17S), WGS84 datum followed by the transformation of all the layers into the required GIF file format. The calibration used urban areas extracted from the satellite images acquired in 1984, 2000 (Landsat-5), 2013 (Landsat-8) and 2019 (Sentinel-2) with the Maximum Likelihood method (Kappa coefficient ~0,8). It was validated with Sentinel-2 image taken in 2019 showing good fit (Kappa coefficient 0.84). During 1984-2019 period the urban areas in Buena Fe grew more than 4 times, which is similar to the population growth. Considering these rates, the future growth scenario for 2040 is expected to achieve the extension of 20 km2, the increment of more than 200% in the extension of the urban areas which will spread over the agricultural lands. Most of the expected growth is predicted to the north of the existing city, being the Access to the transportation network and the topography the factors determining the urban spatial patterns.